Invading Iran?

Iran does have a lot of outdated technology, but they have a large and potentially strong IADS. Iran has four S-300P battalions. If they deploy them to defend their nuclear reactors, it would look something like this: link. The three red concentric circles represent 5V55K, 5V55R, and 5V55RUD missiles of the S-300PMU (SA-20 GARGOYLE) system. The purple is the S-200 (SA-5 GAMMON) and the dark red is the HQ-2, the orange being the HAWK. All these systems are capable of engaging America’s non-stealth conventional air forces. To beat Iran, the U.S.A. would have to beat Iran’s IADS (Integrated Air Defence System.) They’d have to do this from Iraq or Saudi or Afghanistan because putting an aircraft carrier into the Gulf would be suicide during a war with Iran. If US still has conventional warfare planes such as F-15 or F-16 in service by the time they fight Iran, the odds would be weighted more evenly, but F-22’s RCS would be virtually undectable to any Iranian RADAR system with perhaps the exception of the attached radars to the S-300PMUs they have. That’s not even certain either, as Iran does not have the Nebo-SVU solid-state AESA radar which is capable of combating the F-22/B-2. The only weapon they have to fight the F-22 is the S-300PMU and I personally do not think they have enough of them or the required electronic material to combat the F-22. Iraq’s IADS was decimated by the US. But Iran is not Iraq. Their IADS is more advanced and uses more up to date technology. An air battle would really depend on if the US fields the F-22 and if so, how many of them.

This is how Nebo-SVU acquisition radar attached to S-300P batteries can defeat F/A-22. Without Nebo-SVU, Iran cannot really fight the -22

Now a word on a possible land war. We should take Iraq into consideration, firstly. In 2003, Iraq had 12 infantry divisions, 5 mechanised divisions, and 6 armoured divisons, including the Republican Guard. Iran’s order of battle is as follows: 2 mechanised divisions, 3 armoured divisions, 5 infantry divisions, and a paratroop division. In terms of technology and morale, though, Iran is significantly better than Iraq was. Many Iraqi troops surrendered en-masse.

Nonetheless, if we assume for a minute that the US does not have any troops in Afghanistan, and that Britain joins in, Britain and America would, on open ground on the Iraqi-Iranian border, destroy the Iranian Army in the field. However, the assumption is pretty false; the US has 100,000 troops in Afghanistan and what, 70,000 in Iraq? It’s my opinion that with their current responsibilities in Iraq and Afghanistan, the US would be hard pressed to open another front in Iran. Occupation is a different matter and would be very tough. However, if the mission was simply to destroy Iran’s nuclear capability, I think the US would be able to do it. They might even be able to topple the regime, but who knows, and at what cost?

Written by Bagration, thought it would be interesting to put up for discussion.